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Yes, You Can Believe the Polls… Mostly

BQE Admin on October 16, 2025

Political Whisperer

By Robert Hornak

Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail. com and @roberthornak on X.

 

When you talk about election polls you hear many different responses. What many Republicans have been saying lately when it comes to the polls for the NYC mayors’ race is that they don’t believe the polls. And that’s a shame.

Polling is not intended to definitively predict the winner of an election, especially months before an election. What polls offer is a snapshot of what the electorate is thinking at that moment in time and insight into what each candidate needs to do to increase their voter appeal.

Candidates can look at these polls and find their strengths and weaknesses, then go about emphasizing their strengths while minimizing or adjusting for their weaknesses. That’s what campaigns are all about.

When this is explained, many people will push back, saying, well what about Trump? Well, if you look at the Trump polls, they were very interesting. In 2016, Trump was trailing Clinton the entire race. But as the election took shape, a phrase was coined in response to what the polls were showing. Voters related to Trump but were not saying they would vote for him. These were increasingly referred to as the hidden Trump voter.

And in the end, while Trump won the electoral college, he did lose the popular vote as the polls predicted.

The 2020 election is now the third rail of politics, but the polls showed Trump down and he ended up losing. And in 2024, Harris was up at the very beginning, but as she stumbled while responding to serious questions, the polls narrowed and Trump took the lead in many national polls and almost every swing state poll.

But for mayoral polling you can look no further than the 2021 election. The first polls that came out after Eric Adams won the primary showed Sliwa with under 30% of voter support. That was where he stayed the entire race, and that was where he finished on election day.

In the Democratic Primary this year, Cuomo was up early and expected to easily win. But that wasn’t where the polls stayed. As each month passed, Mamdani closed the gap, leading to many people questioning Cuomo’s strategy and commitment. As the election drew near the polls were showing a tight race, with two polls actually showing Mamdani pulling ahead.

Now, the polls have all consistently shown Mamdani leading in the 40’s. with Cuomo until recently in the 20’s, and Sliwa in the low teens. That has not changed significantly all through the summer and in the Quinnipiac poll after Adams dropped out, and it showed all his support going to Cuomo, propelling him up to 33% and just over ten points behind Mamdani.

This has clearly become a two- person race, but not between the two people that Sliwa supporters claim it’s between.

Sliwa’s campaign strategy has not changed since June, and neither have his poll numbers. In fact, he’s essentially running the same campaign he did in 2021 that got him 28% of the vote. Disappointed Republicans have gone to Cuomo in large numbers (many by way of Adams), leaving him with approximately half the support he had last time.

The polls have accurately laid out each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses by issue. Mamdani was very strong on a number of issues, like affordability. Cuomo was very strong on a number, like experience. Sliwa has not shown strong on a single issue, even on his signature issue public safety, where voter confidence for him is still weak.

Yes, the polls can be off. It requires an ability to accurately predict who will turn out to vote and asking the right questions from a scientifically random sample of voters. Campaign strategists are required to and often do it well.

The idea that they will be off, and consistently, by 30 points or more is silly to believe. This campaign has always been a race to 40% and Mamdani is in the catbird seat. Cuomo needs to win over Mamdani supporters to have a chance to beat him and be the one who finishes over 40%.

Mamdani’s Words May Finally be Catching Up with Him

BQE Admin on October 10, 2025

By Robert Hornak

Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

In politics there are different kinds of lies, and there are different kinds of apologies. Like a craps player in Vegas, it looks like Zohran Mamdani is trying to bet he can cover all the options and still come out a winner.

Everyone knows the typical campaign promise lie. “If elected, I promise I will…” is a very common statement that every politician makes on the campaign trail. Sometimes they deliver, and sometimes they don’t. When they don’t, their opposition says they lied. But let’s be honest, nobody can pass a bill alone. You still need a legislative majority and the chief executive to sign the bill.

That’s really a promise to “try” to make something happen. Mamdani has made many of those, which many people are claiming he’s lying about. For most he will need to City Council to support him, and there’s little reason to think they won’t, but for some he needs Albany to approve his plans.

A perfect example is his promise to make buses free. The city doesn’t control the buses, the MTA does. It’s a state authority with a governing board appointed mostly by the governor. Control is in the hands of Albany.

Mamdani, currently a state legislator, could push a bill in support of this to show he’s serious. Of course, last time there was a bill to create free bus lines, Mamdani chose not to support it and voted against the budget deal in protest. He bailed on the previous attempt to make this happen, possibly burning his political capital on this, which may be why he doesn’t push for it now.

Mamdani has made many promises about his plans, and they almost all require new funding. Around $10 Billion in new funding. When called out for not having serious plans to pay for all this, he claims he will just tax the rich. Another proposal controlled by Albany, and once again a bill which he has not pushed in Albany to pave the way and show he’s serious.

Now, as the money to fund all his plans appears less sure, he now admits he might need a “plan B” to fund his agenda. When pushed on what he will do if he’s unable to secure the funds through new taxes he responded, “If this money is funded by the additional taxes or it’s funded by a better-than-expected (tax) assessment, or it’s funded by a pot of money that wasn’t previously spoken about, or savings that have come in, then the most important thing is that it’s funded.”

That’s a clever response, but it shows he really has no idea how he’s going to pay for all his promises, and he knows it. And many people are zeroing in on this to accuse him of more lying.

But the really damaging kind of lie is the one he told when questioned about tweeting, “We don’t need an investigation to know that the NYPD is racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety.” He said that he would apologize for saying that, but then no apology ever came. Saying you’re going to apologize is not an apology.

And there are the different kind of apologies. The one where you say I feel really bad for what I said, and there’s the one where you say I feel really bad that you were offended by what I said. The second kind is really a non-apology.

But Mamdani has done neither. He wants to create a new kind, the pretend apology. He claims to be apologizing to officers that he speaks to, one-on-one. There are around 33,000 uniformed officers in the NYPD, and every one of them deserves an apology from Mamdani if he wants to lead them next year.

But he won’t, because he was lying to get out of an uncomfortable situation, claiming he would do something he had no intention of doing. And we can assume that is because he truly believes what he said. Or worse, is afraid to anger his many followers who believe it.

The lies are starting to pile up for Mamdani, and he’s not even mayor yet. With less than four weeks until election day, will this catch up with him, or will he skate by to a win, only to be exposed for all this next year?

Political Whisperer: Mamdani Derangement Gripping NYC is Justified

BQE Admin on July 14, 2025

By Robert Hornak

It’s official, Zohran Mamdani’s primary win is unnerving many in NYC and dividing Democrats into two very distinct camps. 

First are the Mamdani defenders. With Mamdani derangement syndrome appearing to overtake a majority of New Yorkers there is a sudden onslaught of opinion columns and social media posts aimed at trying to calm everyone down. 

They are spinning the story that Mamdani isn’t so bad. Sure, he’s said some negative things about Israel, but that’s just politics they claim. When confronted on his belief system he responded saying that he is opposed to hate crimes and would allocate additional funds to fighting them. Of course, that’s not a denial but it was enough for many of his defenders to hang their hat on. 

They are also claiming that all his proposals for free stuff are nothing new, they have either been done before or they’ve been campaigned on before but not enacted. While intended to be a ringing endorsement of the Mamdani agenda, claiming to be just more of the same failed policies that have brought NYC closer to the bad old days, and making this the city of exodus, driving out more people in search of a better life than anywhere else in the country, doesn’t seem like the best sales technique, but again, they need to say something to make him seem acceptable. 

De Blasio enacted three rent freezes in eight years, and that worked out so well we saw rents hit all-time highs. So why not double down and push for a four year freeze? That should make things even better. Free buses? Well we already have discounts for certain riders, that’s the same as free for everyone, isn’t it? 

Tax the rich? Well, that’s surely not a new one. But that is controlled by Albany, as even a new member of the Assembly should know. And, of course, that is the Democratic Party mantra, and they have successfully complicated the tax code to try to get more and more from the successful, with no amount ever seeming to be enough.

That leads to the argument that Mamdani may not fully align with traditional socialists, but rather adopts the label strategically. While he has made statements suggesting support for public control over certain industries—an idea rooted in socialist and even communist frameworks—that alone doesn’t necessarily make him a communist.

It’s easy to see how his rhetoric may come across as appealing or idealistic. But his critics argue that when a politician shares their worldview, it’s worth taking them at their word.

Concerns have also been raised about his positions on Israel. Critics point to his support for the BDS movement, which many believe unfairly singles out Israel. These decisions have drawn serious criticism and prompted questions about his broader worldview.

Proposals like free bus service, universal childcare, and rent freezes may not amount to full-fledged socialism, but critics argue they reflect a lack of fiscal planning and a limited roadmap for how to realistically move New York City forward. The cost of these initiatives remains largely unanswered, leaving doubts about their sustainability.

Then there’s the fact that Mamdani continues to embrace the label of “socialist,” and has publicly expressed views critical of extreme wealth, private property, and market capitalism. These ideas, while resonant with some progressive voters, are viewed by others as impractical or even concerning.

Some argue that dismissing Mamdani as merely holding controversial views on Israel or as a moderate progressive downplays the impacts of his rhetoric and policy positions. They believe his track record speaks for itself.

But he does have a warm smile and projects a youthful exuberance that many voters find attractive and they will ignore all the warning signs of the coming disaster for promises of free stuff delivered with a warm, engaging smile. Whether the enthusiasm is enough to outweigh skepticism about his policies remains to be seen.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

Did Hell Just Freeze Over in New York City?

BQE Admin on July 2, 2025

Politcal Whisperer

By Robert Hornak

What everyone thought was unthinkable happened last Tuesday, a 33-year old self-proclaimed socialist with a resume thinner than tissue paper won the nomination for Mayor of the City of New York. 

By all accounts, the perceived front runner, former governor Andrew Cuomo, ran a lackluster, uninspired campaign that he could have phoned in. In contrast, Mamdani ran a campaign that was vibrant and engaging, with a youthful, attractive candidate who managed to connect with many voters. He stood out, in many ways, from the rest of the pack. 

Cuomo had all the establishment support. The Democratic County organizations, the big, powerful unions, and the business and real estate communities. It seemed unthinkable that Democrats could lose this election to a back-bench Assemblyman with no real world experience. But that’s exactly what happened.

Now, everyone who thinks this could be an existential threat to the future of the city is in a state of total panic. 

The conventional wisdom – yes the same wisdom that thought Cuomo was an easy winner – says that the field must be cleared now, and rally around one candidate to take on Mamdani head to head. 

The problem with that is obvious. Why should anyone trust the pick of the conventional thinkers after they got the primary so incredibly wrong? 

Some Republicans think that their nominee, Curtis Sliwa, should be the one. But many more people seem to think that failed and disgraced incumbent mayor Eric Adams is the pick to get behind. Cuomo is also still running as an independent, just like Adams, but is seen as a loser now after his poor primary performance.

After the first round of voting, Mamdani was at 43.5% with 432,000 votes. Cuomo was a distant second at 36.4% with 361,000 votes. That’s extremely embarrassing for someone once elected to serve as governor three times. Most of the Cuomo primary support seems to be jumping to Adams, with the County organizations still undecided on how to deal with such a perilous nominee. 

It seems clear the better way to go, as Republicans often say, is through competition. Eight candidates are on the ballot for mayor. And six appear to be real, including Mamdani, Cuomo, Adams, Sliwa, and two other independent candidates, powerful lawyer Jim Walden, a democrat, and successful biotech entrepreneur Joseph Hernandez, a republican. 

Nobody is dropping out now. That’s clear, no matter how much handwringing is done by the conventional thinkers who believe they know the best way to win again. So, let’s watch this race progress over the next four months, which is plenty of time for the other five candidates to make their case to the voters. Let’s see who resonates, who connects with the voters, who can either overcome all their negative baggage or make an incredible first impression as an exciting, new face to convince the voters they are the best one to run the city. 

Then, come mid-October, we will see who’s in the best position to win and rally everyone around that one candidate to beat Mamdani.

That’s the only way to beat someone with charisma and over 430,000 votes at the start to count on. It’s no guarantee to work, but much better than having one choice shoved down our throats now that nobody can agree on. 

And, of course, we always have the ‘break glass in case of emergency’ option. This will add a new and looming dimension to the governor’s race next year. Whoever is governor, should Mamdani win, will have the power to remove him, as we learned after the Adams indictment. 

Should Mamdani do any of the things he has pledged, allow criminals to run free, impede federal authorities arresting illegal immigrants, or creating an international incident trying to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in deference to what he refers to as “internation law,” he can be removed from office. 

In what could be a competitive race for governor, a Mamdani mayoralty could be what tilts the scale for the first Republican governor since 2002.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

Mamdani Wants to be NYC’s Candyman not Mayor

BQE Admin on June 13, 2025

by Robert Hornak

It’s very fitting that Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year old assemblyman born in Uganda, is the child of a famous Hollywood director. He appears to be auditioning for the lead in a theoretical remake famous movie Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory rather than running for mayor of the biggest city in America. 

Mamdani, a self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialist” has staked his candidacy on a laundry list of giveaways, essentially candy that he plans to give the people of NYC in exchange for their vote, candy that he could only make appear with the magic of Hollywood. 

With the Democratic Primary less than two weeks away, Mamdani’s message has remained consistent. He plans to give away all of the following: 

  • Free buses
  • Free childcare
  • City-owned grocery stores selling food at wholesale prices
  • Create a Department of Community Safety to “prevent violence before it happens.”
  • A freeze in rent while working to bring rents down
  • Build 200,000 new affordable, stabilized rental units
  • Plus, a crackdown on “bad” landlords. 

He claims to know “exactly how to pay for it, too.” His brainstorm of original thinking is to, ready for it – raise taxes on corporations and the rich. Oh, and increase fine collection on landlords, the same people he plans to ask to build new housing that they won’t make any money from. 

This agenda is only realistic in the make believe world of a Hollywood movie. Mamdani doesn’t have control over almost his entire agenda. He might as well be advocating for space exploration and Middle East peace. But I guess he plans to make developers, landlords, grocery store owners, corporations and high income individuals an offer they can’t refuse?

But all these ideas can be refused and have been in the past. This is not the first time these ideas have been proposed. The buses are run by the MTA, a state agency. The mayor has no direct control over them or what the fare is. He could propose a NYC takeover of New York City Transit, the division of the MTA that runs city buses and subways. But then the mayor will be fully accountable for its performance. Not a bad idea, but that’s not what he is proposing. 

His free childcare proposal is to provide “free childcare for every New Yorker aged 6 weeks to 5 years” while lamenting that some women choose to stay home and raise their children rather than remain a taxpaying working in NYC’s infrastructure, while turning the raising of their children over to another worker who Mamdani pledges will be paid equivalent to NYC school teachers. And likely part of the union as well, expanding union leaders’ power and control over a long-broken educational system that, by the way, he has no plans to fix. 

This same dissection can be done for every one of his proposals. City-owned grocery stores will put the thousands of existing grocery stores, convenience stores and bodegas out of business. Putting tens of thousands of workers out of work, from clerks to managers to owners. 

Asking developers and landlords to build 200,000 new rental units that will be “affordable” while freezing the rent those same landlords can charge on existing units and aggressively fining them for every minor violation is not compatible. If developers can’t make money, they just won’t build rentals. It’s that simple. They are many other ways to increase supply to meet demand and try to stabilize the cost. Let’s also not forget the worst landlord in NYC is the city itself, with the worst conditions in public housing. But he has no plan to fix that either. 

Creating a Dept of Community Safety is just code for defund the police. No matter how candy-coated you make that proposal sound, that’s all it is. We have real public safety issues to address, but he has no plan for that either. 

And, of course, pay for it all by raising taxes. After they just finished telling us that tariffs are nothing more than a tax on business that raises the cost to consumers, Mamdani is proposing to raise the cost of goods and services on every New Yorker for everything they buy. 

The role Mamdani is really suited for is the Child Catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. He wants to entice us with his promise of sweets in a tempting ploy to trick us into an actual reality that traps everyone.

Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

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