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Yes, You Can Believe the Polls… Mostly

BQE Admin on October 16, 2025

Political Whisperer

By Robert Hornak

Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail. com and @roberthornak on X.

 

When you talk about election polls you hear many different responses. What many Republicans have been saying lately when it comes to the polls for the NYC mayors’ race is that they don’t believe the polls. And that’s a shame.

Polling is not intended to definitively predict the winner of an election, especially months before an election. What polls offer is a snapshot of what the electorate is thinking at that moment in time and insight into what each candidate needs to do to increase their voter appeal.

Candidates can look at these polls and find their strengths and weaknesses, then go about emphasizing their strengths while minimizing or adjusting for their weaknesses. That’s what campaigns are all about.

When this is explained, many people will push back, saying, well what about Trump? Well, if you look at the Trump polls, they were very interesting. In 2016, Trump was trailing Clinton the entire race. But as the election took shape, a phrase was coined in response to what the polls were showing. Voters related to Trump but were not saying they would vote for him. These were increasingly referred to as the hidden Trump voter.

And in the end, while Trump won the electoral college, he did lose the popular vote as the polls predicted.

The 2020 election is now the third rail of politics, but the polls showed Trump down and he ended up losing. And in 2024, Harris was up at the very beginning, but as she stumbled while responding to serious questions, the polls narrowed and Trump took the lead in many national polls and almost every swing state poll.

But for mayoral polling you can look no further than the 2021 election. The first polls that came out after Eric Adams won the primary showed Sliwa with under 30% of voter support. That was where he stayed the entire race, and that was where he finished on election day.

In the Democratic Primary this year, Cuomo was up early and expected to easily win. But that wasn’t where the polls stayed. As each month passed, Mamdani closed the gap, leading to many people questioning Cuomo’s strategy and commitment. As the election drew near the polls were showing a tight race, with two polls actually showing Mamdani pulling ahead.

Now, the polls have all consistently shown Mamdani leading in the 40’s. with Cuomo until recently in the 20’s, and Sliwa in the low teens. That has not changed significantly all through the summer and in the Quinnipiac poll after Adams dropped out, and it showed all his support going to Cuomo, propelling him up to 33% and just over ten points behind Mamdani.

This has clearly become a two- person race, but not between the two people that Sliwa supporters claim it’s between.

Sliwa’s campaign strategy has not changed since June, and neither have his poll numbers. In fact, he’s essentially running the same campaign he did in 2021 that got him 28% of the vote. Disappointed Republicans have gone to Cuomo in large numbers (many by way of Adams), leaving him with approximately half the support he had last time.

The polls have accurately laid out each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses by issue. Mamdani was very strong on a number of issues, like affordability. Cuomo was very strong on a number, like experience. Sliwa has not shown strong on a single issue, even on his signature issue public safety, where voter confidence for him is still weak.

Yes, the polls can be off. It requires an ability to accurately predict who will turn out to vote and asking the right questions from a scientifically random sample of voters. Campaign strategists are required to and often do it well.

The idea that they will be off, and consistently, by 30 points or more is silly to believe. This campaign has always been a race to 40% and Mamdani is in the catbird seat. Cuomo needs to win over Mamdani supporters to have a chance to beat him and be the one who finishes over 40%.

Political Whisperer: Mamdani Derangement Gripping NYC is Justified

BQE Admin on July 14, 2025

By Robert Hornak

It’s official, Zohran Mamdani’s primary win is unnerving many in NYC and dividing Democrats into two very distinct camps. 

First are the Mamdani defenders. With Mamdani derangement syndrome appearing to overtake a majority of New Yorkers there is a sudden onslaught of opinion columns and social media posts aimed at trying to calm everyone down. 

They are spinning the story that Mamdani isn’t so bad. Sure, he’s said some negative things about Israel, but that’s just politics they claim. When confronted on his belief system he responded saying that he is opposed to hate crimes and would allocate additional funds to fighting them. Of course, that’s not a denial but it was enough for many of his defenders to hang their hat on. 

They are also claiming that all his proposals for free stuff are nothing new, they have either been done before or they’ve been campaigned on before but not enacted. While intended to be a ringing endorsement of the Mamdani agenda, claiming to be just more of the same failed policies that have brought NYC closer to the bad old days, and making this the city of exodus, driving out more people in search of a better life than anywhere else in the country, doesn’t seem like the best sales technique, but again, they need to say something to make him seem acceptable. 

De Blasio enacted three rent freezes in eight years, and that worked out so well we saw rents hit all-time highs. So why not double down and push for a four year freeze? That should make things even better. Free buses? Well we already have discounts for certain riders, that’s the same as free for everyone, isn’t it? 

Tax the rich? Well, that’s surely not a new one. But that is controlled by Albany, as even a new member of the Assembly should know. And, of course, that is the Democratic Party mantra, and they have successfully complicated the tax code to try to get more and more from the successful, with no amount ever seeming to be enough.

That leads to the argument that Mamdani may not fully align with traditional socialists, but rather adopts the label strategically. While he has made statements suggesting support for public control over certain industries—an idea rooted in socialist and even communist frameworks—that alone doesn’t necessarily make him a communist.

It’s easy to see how his rhetoric may come across as appealing or idealistic. But his critics argue that when a politician shares their worldview, it’s worth taking them at their word.

Concerns have also been raised about his positions on Israel. Critics point to his support for the BDS movement, which many believe unfairly singles out Israel. These decisions have drawn serious criticism and prompted questions about his broader worldview.

Proposals like free bus service, universal childcare, and rent freezes may not amount to full-fledged socialism, but critics argue they reflect a lack of fiscal planning and a limited roadmap for how to realistically move New York City forward. The cost of these initiatives remains largely unanswered, leaving doubts about their sustainability.

Then there’s the fact that Mamdani continues to embrace the label of “socialist,” and has publicly expressed views critical of extreme wealth, private property, and market capitalism. These ideas, while resonant with some progressive voters, are viewed by others as impractical or even concerning.

Some argue that dismissing Mamdani as merely holding controversial views on Israel or as a moderate progressive downplays the impacts of his rhetoric and policy positions. They believe his track record speaks for itself.

But he does have a warm smile and projects a youthful exuberance that many voters find attractive and they will ignore all the warning signs of the coming disaster for promises of free stuff delivered with a warm, engaging smile. Whether the enthusiasm is enough to outweigh skepticism about his policies remains to be seen.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

Did Hell Just Freeze Over in New York City?

BQE Admin on July 2, 2025

Politcal Whisperer

By Robert Hornak

What everyone thought was unthinkable happened last Tuesday, a 33-year old self-proclaimed socialist with a resume thinner than tissue paper won the nomination for Mayor of the City of New York. 

By all accounts, the perceived front runner, former governor Andrew Cuomo, ran a lackluster, uninspired campaign that he could have phoned in. In contrast, Mamdani ran a campaign that was vibrant and engaging, with a youthful, attractive candidate who managed to connect with many voters. He stood out, in many ways, from the rest of the pack. 

Cuomo had all the establishment support. The Democratic County organizations, the big, powerful unions, and the business and real estate communities. It seemed unthinkable that Democrats could lose this election to a back-bench Assemblyman with no real world experience. But that’s exactly what happened.

Now, everyone who thinks this could be an existential threat to the future of the city is in a state of total panic. 

The conventional wisdom – yes the same wisdom that thought Cuomo was an easy winner – says that the field must be cleared now, and rally around one candidate to take on Mamdani head to head. 

The problem with that is obvious. Why should anyone trust the pick of the conventional thinkers after they got the primary so incredibly wrong? 

Some Republicans think that their nominee, Curtis Sliwa, should be the one. But many more people seem to think that failed and disgraced incumbent mayor Eric Adams is the pick to get behind. Cuomo is also still running as an independent, just like Adams, but is seen as a loser now after his poor primary performance.

After the first round of voting, Mamdani was at 43.5% with 432,000 votes. Cuomo was a distant second at 36.4% with 361,000 votes. That’s extremely embarrassing for someone once elected to serve as governor three times. Most of the Cuomo primary support seems to be jumping to Adams, with the County organizations still undecided on how to deal with such a perilous nominee. 

It seems clear the better way to go, as Republicans often say, is through competition. Eight candidates are on the ballot for mayor. And six appear to be real, including Mamdani, Cuomo, Adams, Sliwa, and two other independent candidates, powerful lawyer Jim Walden, a democrat, and successful biotech entrepreneur Joseph Hernandez, a republican. 

Nobody is dropping out now. That’s clear, no matter how much handwringing is done by the conventional thinkers who believe they know the best way to win again. So, let’s watch this race progress over the next four months, which is plenty of time for the other five candidates to make their case to the voters. Let’s see who resonates, who connects with the voters, who can either overcome all their negative baggage or make an incredible first impression as an exciting, new face to convince the voters they are the best one to run the city. 

Then, come mid-October, we will see who’s in the best position to win and rally everyone around that one candidate to beat Mamdani.

That’s the only way to beat someone with charisma and over 430,000 votes at the start to count on. It’s no guarantee to work, but much better than having one choice shoved down our throats now that nobody can agree on. 

And, of course, we always have the ‘break glass in case of emergency’ option. This will add a new and looming dimension to the governor’s race next year. Whoever is governor, should Mamdani win, will have the power to remove him, as we learned after the Adams indictment. 

Should Mamdani do any of the things he has pledged, allow criminals to run free, impede federal authorities arresting illegal immigrants, or creating an international incident trying to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in deference to what he refers to as “internation law,” he can be removed from office. 

In what could be a competitive race for governor, a Mamdani mayoralty could be what tilts the scale for the first Republican governor since 2002.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.

Pol Position: When There’s No Path, Move The Goal …. And Cuomo Still Leads

BQE Admin on February 4, 2025

The red dress, who had been seemingly inserted in every photo
with Mayor Adams prior his legal troubles, announced a run
for city comptroller in November. Woodhaven Assembly
member Jennifer Rajkumar announced then, with great
fanfare, that she could turn the city around. Her blanket
political promises, of course, covered little specific substance,
just outlined that she fixes things and NYC needs to be fixed.
When others saw she was running, they thought she was quite
vulnerable. Senator Kevin Parker was in the race early. The
political playbook says, ‘raise a lot of money and you scare
people away from running against you.’ Well, it didn’t work
here. Seeing Rajkumar had raised a significant amount of
money entering the race, our sources tell us that Councilman
Justin Brennan and Mark Levine didn’t flinch, saw a path to
win the Comptroller race and joined in on the fun. After all,
Rajkumar’s claim to fame, according to legislators we speak
with, is appearing wearing a red dress, in nearly every photo
op. with the mayor. And as soon as he, and those around him
got caught up in probes and cell phone confiscation, she was a
ghost.
It’s not really her fault though. We were the first to talk to her
when she announced she was running for the Assembly and
faced incumbent Mike Miller in a primary in Woodhaven &
Richmond Hill. Our Leader Observer newspaper has been the
weekly paper of record in that area since 1909. She admitted
she moved here from Manhattan, specifically to run against
him in a district that had a low voter turnout. It’s a great story.
We loved her honesty and gave her a bunch of credit for
wanting to get into the political game any way she could. It was

brilliant. But early success, as we all know, sometimes leads to
a false sense that it’s going to be easy to move up in the
political world. By the way, not every legislator wants ‘to move
up’ as they say. Being an Assemblyman, Council representative
or Senator is a pretty successful thing – and many we report on
here see their service in these positions as a goal. But no doubt
some feel the need to move ‘up.’ But we digress.
The ‘Red Dress’ thing is a great prop. It’s a good way for people
to remember you. But people aren’t easily fooled. These days
they want substance. It’s too easy to run for office now, so we
are getting people who are movers and shakers, civic leaders
and business leaders. They don’t solely come out of democratic
clubs any longer. She happens to be sort of an outcast in the
Queens Assembly Caucus. Why? Because she wants more and
her colleagues see it. There’s time, one Queens Assembly
member told us. You can’t just move up because you are smart,
or because you have a brand. Getting elected takes work. It
takes going door-to-door to talk to the people. “… it takes
proving you can get things done.”

Cuomo Still On Top

Case in point … Andrew Cuomo. This week another poll came
out showing he still has a 25-point lead in a run for mayor ….
and he didn’t even announce. You have Stringer, Williams,
Ramos, Landor, Mamdani and Adams, each under 10%.
Cuomo has a track record of getting something done. Whether
you like it or not.
As of last week, the path to the next level for Rajkumar is in the
Public Advocate office. Moving The Goal… brilliant with
unapologetic moxie.

Jennifer Rajkumar

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