By Robert Hornak

Tomorrow is election day but when you read this the election will be over and we will likely know who the winner is. One of the longest and most contentious elections in modern history will be over, so the obvious question many will be asking is, what next?

Regardless of who wins, approximately half the country will believe that this is the beginning of the end for our nation. But the truth is our country has always been very divided and our politics always very contentious.

We can go all the way back to our nation’s infancy, to the election of 1800, between two of our founding fathers, Democratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson and Federalist John Adams. About the worst thing you could call someone then was a monarchist, with the U.S having just won its independence from the British crown. And that’s what Jefferson’s supporters called Adams, which was akin to calling someone a communist today. 

Meanwhile, Adams supporters called Jefferson an atheist. A blatant lie meant to portray Jefferson as immoral, but there were no “fact checkers” back then. Jefferson won that election with 73 electoral votes to Adams 54 and 60.6% of the vote to Adams 39.4%. 

Fast forward a little over 200 years and we have seen numerous campaigns that were nasty and filled with name calling and dirty tricks. And many of those elections were very close and bitterly divided. 

But there is a difference in today’s politics. The political has become very personal, with many people and politicians attacking not just the opposition candidate, but all the followers of that candidate and party. And far too many people describe their feelings for the other side as hate. That’s a pretty strong emotion to have for someone you don’t know and doesn’t know you. 

What we really hate is that person’s success in pushing an agenda we strongly disagree with. Nobody demonstrates this more than Trump. Every Republican has taken nasty slings and arrows from the opposition, but Trump stepped into an arena he wasn’t supposed to win in, and showed incredible success both against the other party, but also coalescing the very large number of disaffected party faithful in his own party who for years have been complaining about the legislative effectiveness of the Republican leadership. 

We have all heard Joe Biden and Kamala Harris refer to Republicans as “MAGA extremists.” And just the other day Kathy Hochul said that anyone in New York who votes for Republicans, any Republicans – which is just about every Republican – is “voting for someone who supports Donald Trump and you’re anti-women, you’re anti-abortion, and basically, you’re anti-American.”

This is no way to bring the country together. Of course this isn’t new. In 2014, Andrew Cuomo said during his re-election that Republicans with conservative views “have no place in the state of New York.” 

What’s interesting is that Trump has actually been one of the most moderate Republicans to become a major leader in the party. As the Democrats seem to be aligning more and more with the most radical elements of their party, Trump actually had the Republican Platform modified to be more moderate on both abortion and same sex marriage, two of the most hot-button social issues the nation has been grappling with for decades. 

And MAGA is really just an extension of the Reagan Revolution. Even the slogan was used by Reagan, who had “Let’s Make America Great Again” as a main campaign theme. 

So, where do we go from here? Can we cool off the rhetoric, which comes from both sides, and find ways to have some respect for the people trying to lead us forward but who we disagree with? And find some way to work together, and find common ground upon which we can deliver for the people of our city, state, and country? That, really is the big question we need to decide after this election, and will determine our political future in the months and years to come.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.

By Robert Hornak

The 2024 election is almost over. I’m sure many people would say mercifully so. While a victory by former President Trump is looking increasingly likely the talk has begun to turn toward who will control Congress.

Republican control of the Senate looks like a near certainty. Of the 11 seats up for election held by Republicans, including two open seats, only one Republican is in danger of losing – Deb Fischer of Nebraska. She’s only up by one point in the polls, but Trump is ahead in Nebraska by 16 points. It’s very likely his strong performance will pull her across the finish line. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to defend 23 seats, including 7 open seats. Of those, West Virginia’s open seat is considered an easy win for Republicans, putting the Senate at 50-50. In Montana, another state Trump will do well in, Democrat Jon Tester is down in the polls.

The respected Cook Political Report has rated the races in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania as toss ups. And the seats in Arizona and Nevada are only very narrow leads for the Democrats. If Republicans run the table and see upset wins in the surprisingly close race in Maryland and flip Virginia, they would be at 59 seats.

So, what are the chances that Republican can win the trifecta on Tuesday?

Pretty good, no matter what happens in New York. Cook rates 25 House races as toss ups, 11 Democrats and 14 Republicans. These swing districts will have less to do with which presidential candidate wins their state than with the local dynamics. Excitement over the candidate at the top of the ballot can influence the results down ballot, depending on the strength of their coattails. Strong candidates for president have big coattails, sweeping many candidates from their party into office. One rare exception was 2020, where Democrats actually lost 11 House seats, setting up the 2022 election where Republicans were able to take back control of the House by gaining 9 seats that November.

In addition to the toss up races, Cook rates 11 blue seats as leaning Democrat, or somewhat competitive. Meanwhile, there are only 6 Republican seats that are leaning Republican, with one incumbent’s race rated as leaning Democrat. They also rate 16 Democrat seats and 10 Republican seats as likely wins for their respective party. Every other race they rate as solid, or not even remotely competitive. In all that’s 38 Democrat seats and 31 Republican seats that could be in play. This is where the action is going to be on election night, and we are likely to see a number of surprises. There are always incumbents that you thought were a goner, but manage to hang on, and a couple that you were sure to be re-elected that end up defeated. Some of this will depend on the strength of presidential coattails in these districts, with turnout certain to be affected by the enthusiasm each candidate has generated. And on the enthusiasm meter, Trump seems to have the advantage.

But ultimately it will depend on the strength of the individual candidates and the races they run. So regardless of whether Republicans hold their seats in New York or wind up losing two or three, the chances that Republicans overall will pick up a number of seats around the country are very good and we are likely to see a significantly larger Republican conference in the House next year.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.

By Robert Hornak

It’s almost two weeks since Mayor Eric Adams was indicted, and NYC’s future couldn’t be murkier. Right on cue, the calls for Adams to resign was immediate. No due process required.  AOC and her gang of far-left radicals, who never found Adams sufficiently far left enough, lead the charge along with people like Brad Lander and Scott Stringer who covet the office Adams now holds. Ulterior motives abound. 

Some are defending Adams and his right to due process, led by Adams allies Hazel Dukes from the NAACP and Al Sharpton, no stranger to corruption charges himself. Now Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the top House Democrat, has come out on Adams behalf. 

Meanwhile, Adams has been defiant, proclaiming his innocence. So, if Adams refuses to resign, what happens next?

There are many possibilities. First, Gov. Hochul has the power to remove him according to chapter 1, section 9 of the City Charter, and as affirmed in 1932 by the court when FDR explored using it to remove Jimmy Walker. However, it’s unclear if Hochul wants to risk the backlash from Black Democrats. 

It’s also unlikely that the Democrats want to trigger a very unpredictable special election to replace Adams. The same goes for the Inability Committee provided for by the charter, consisting of five people, only one of whom would be appointed by someone who has called for Adams to resign. And it’s unlikely that Brad Lander would want next in line Jumaane Williams – who wasn’t even considering running for mayor next year – to become acting Mayor, giving him the chance to act mayoral for the non-partisan special election.  

A special election also opens the door for many wildcard candidates, including Andrew Cuomo, who has expressed interest in running in a special election knowing that his chances are far worse in the June partisan primary. Some members of the City Council may also get in on the action, wanting a platform for their issues or just to enhance their name ID, but can then still run for re-election to their council seat. 

However, should Adams hold on into the new year the opportunity for a special election runs out. The charter prohibits a special election once it gets within 90 days of the regularly scheduled primary, which would occur in late March – right in the middle of petitioning for anyone looking to run for the full four-year term. That makes petitioning for a seat like Public Advocate very messy, inviting people to jump into that race as well.

Democrats who need to make decisions on what office to run for next year will want a potential special election to be held by early February, which will require Adams removal no later than early December. Who wins that special will determine what November race they petition for later that month. 

There is no easy or clear path forward. Adams lawyers could negotiate a plea bargain sometime next year that would require him to plead guilty and resign, and we get an acting mayor, either Williams or Lander, until the end of the year. The only thing certain is that the timing of this has made a bad situation worse, nothing that anyone could have wanted.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.