By Robert Hornak

Democrats have made eliminating fossil fuels one of their top priorities. Their plan for a green new deal has been insinuated into almost every facet of our lives, with attacks on everything from automobiles to gas stoves. 

Opponents have long argued that their plans are way too costly with unachievable goals, not to mention calling into question the entire basis for their alarmism – that human activity is not affecting the global climate in any significant way. 

Nevertheless, they have gone full speed ahead passing mandates to phase out fossil fuels and transition almost entirely to wind and solar. In 2019, NY passed a law mandating that both energy producers and consumers cut carbon emissions 40% by 2030 and be 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2040. 

Many objected, saying that NY was nowhere near on track to meet those goals. But now a pro-renewable voice has chimed in, agreeing with the critics on the unrealistic timeline set by NY’s obsessed politicians. The New York Affordable Clean Power Alliance, a special interest group supporting solar and wind producers, has released a shocking new report that declares these mandates a looming disaster for New Yorkers. 

NY has already seen skyrocketing electricity costs. In the first year after the closure of the Indian Point nuclear plant – which supplied 25% of NYC’s total electricity and 80% of its renewable power – the wholesale price of electricity doubled. 

There was nothing wrong with Indian Point, it just didn’t fit into the Democrats political plans. The excuse by then Gov. Cuomo was it could be in danger from earthquakes and terrorists. They want to save the world, but not if it means using nuclear power. 

And as most consumers are now aware, Con Edison is looking to hike rates again by another 11% (citing in part the cost of complying with government mandates). But the real pain hasn’t even begun yet. 

NY is trying to push everything onto the electricity grid. That’s on top of the natural increase in demand driven by our love for modern technology. Our reliance on cell phones, the internet, gaming, and all the gadgets we use on a daily basis are driving demand up exponentially. That’s not touching on things like crypto mining and its incredible demand for electricity. 

Government is adding to the demand by trying to mandate everything run on electricity. In NYC, Local Law 97 is about to force co-op and condo homeowners to replace all gas and coal powered heating systems with electric heaters. Putting aside the incredibly unaffordable cost of doing this for these mostly middle-class homeowners, the insult added on will be the continued increase in the cost of electricity as this adds to the demand for supply. 

According to the Alliance’s report, “The New York City area is forecasted to experience a generation shortfall starting in 2033, driven by an increase in peak demand and the planned retirement of existing dispatchable generation.” It continues, “New York faces hurdles in maintaining reliability due to ambitious renewables targets, the projected retirement of much of its flexible fossil generation fleet, growing load, and extreme weather.”

Then the clincher, “Unlike fossil fuel plants, which provide dispatchable generation around the clock, renewables depend on weather conditions, making real-time supply and demand balancing more complex.”

So now they admit that in addition to the growing cost of these renewable projects, they just aren’t nearly as reliable as traditional energy sources. The final nail in the report on the rising cost of these projects was, “These cost pressures affect all types of developers and would also drive up utilities’ costs if they were permitted to build large scale renewables.”

Meanwhile, these large-scale projects are falling apart all over the state. Some, like the Lighthouse Wind project, are just being cancelled due to rising costs and community opposition. Others are being downsized or delayed indefinitely. And transmission limitations, from upstate where the new projects are being planned to downstate where most of the demand is, are also driving up costs. 

All of this appears to be a perfect storm for New York that could make the cost of electricity the breaking point for many already strapped taxpayers looking for some relief in the cost of living here but finding only pain. 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.

By Robert Hornak

New York has become a real pressure cooker for Democrats, with a voter base – fully gripped by Trump Derangement Syndrome – that wants their party to just throw down and battle Trump at every step, but at the same time wants moderate, responsible leaders who can get things done and have a vision for the future.

They will learn the hard way, however, they can’t have both. 

Chuck Schumer tried to be the responsible adult in the room during the budget extension negotiation. Rather than shut the government down and put his party in a position to be savaged he opted instead to pass a continuing resolution and live to fight another day. 

There was little to gain by opposing the bill, and this was essentially the same clean CR that the Democrats were demanding that Republicans support just last year. But that doesn’t matter to a party that only wants to fight with their friends across the aisle. The calls for Schumer to resign are now building. His own party wants his blood for the now unforgivable sin of working across the political divide. 

There is now rampant speculation that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez will run for his senate seat in 2028 and challenge Schumer in a primary should he run for reelection. Democrats overwhelmingly love the seething anti-Trumpism that people like AOC, Bernie Sanders, and other radical leftists are spewing. For them it’s like hearing Bon Jovi sing “Livin’ on a Prayer” in concert. 

But Democrats don’t want the rest of the agenda being pushed by the AOCs of their party. Recent polls of primary voting Democrats in NYC show that while they want strong opposition to Trump, they also want real solutions to the problems the city is confronting, including getting rid of criminal illegal aliens, putting other criminals in jail, and getting the homeless off city streets and into treatment.

This is why Andrew Cuomo is way, way ahead in the polls for mayor. In the most recent poll, Cuomo has grown his voter support to 41% before ranked choice voting kicks in, and in a RCV simulation he gets over 50% very quickly.  

Second place still goes to socialist Zohran Mamdami at 18%, up from 12% in the last poll. Mamdami is certainly getting his name recognition up with all the press he’s received from his second place showing in the polls to his strong ability to raise tons of cash. 

But he has his limit, only people who want a socialist for mayor will rank him at all. As Cuomo goes above 51% in the simulation, Mandami is only at 23%. And his being a pro-Palestinian anti-Semite isn’t making him any more palatable to voters who are in large numbers Jewish and pro-Israel. 

This is a conundrum that Kathy Hochul has navigated rather well. While her approval numbers are also down, she has avoided Schumer-like calls for her head, managing to show push back against Trump while still finding a defensible way to work with him. But the rubber will meet the road for her over the congestion tax scheme that Trump is demanding she dump, while Hochul wants to dig in and support this incredibly unpopular working-class cash grab. 

Hochul is still likely to have a vigorous primary for her reelection in 2026, but she has a strong advantage there as the incumbent. Especially if the field loads up with anti-Hochul candidates, dividing that vote. But she faced a too-close-for-comfort reelection in 2022 against a lackluster Republican and is likely to face a stronger opponent next time. 

How she balances the anti-Trumpism that her base wants along with the responsible leadership mainstream voters want will have a strong effect on her ability to win another term. Trump did better in NY each election, increasing his vote by 200,000 in 2020, and by another 400,000 in 2024. So most voters are warming to him, even as the Democratic base is consumed with Trump-hatred. 

If Democrats can’t reconcile their blinding desire to fight Trump and their need to work with him, it’s very possible the party could boil over and split into two very distinct factions that open a path for Republicans to start winning citywide and statewide elections again.

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.