Robert Hornak
Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served
as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office
and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be
reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.
For months many people have been calling for candidates to drop out of
the mayor’s race and consolidate the opposition to socialist frontrunner
Zohran Mamdami. Then, last week, the rumors started flying fast and
furiously.
After speculation that Trump could get involved in the race and try to use
his influence to narrow the field, their were reports that high level White
House operatives were discussing a potential job offer for Mayor Eric
Adams, whose corruption scandals have caused voters to lose faith in him,
tanking his support according to every poll.
Then the news finally leaked later in the week that Adams would be offered
an ambassadorship to get him to drop out of the race. The political world
broke out in jubilation; something was finally happening to shake up the
race. Rumors began flying that Republican Curtis Sliwa would be next, and
former Governor Andrew Cuomo would be the sole big name remaining in
the race.
Next, Sliwa announced he was in the race till the end. Which was not a
shock considering that Sliwa would have to repay a few million in matching
funds should he drop out of the race. Adams has not received any
matching funds this cycle so doesn’t have that same problem. But then at
the end of the week Adams held a press conference announcing that he
too was staying in the race. Adams plans to hold on to his single-digit fourth
place showing until the bitter end.
After the weekend the Sienna poll, one of the more credible independent
polls, was released. And after a summer of campaigning and political
attacks, nothing had changed. The numbers remained consistent with
Mamdani holding a commanding lead at 46%, Cuomo at 24%, Sliwa in a
distant third at 15%, and Adams limping along in fourth at 9%.
The only good news for the anti-Mamdani side was that IF both Sliwa and
Adams dropped out, the race would narrow dramatically bringing Cuomo
within 4 points of Mamdani, 48%-44%. The same could not be said for
either Sliwa or Adams, neither of whom closed the gap enough in a one-on-
one match up to make the race competitive.
The race remains Mamdani’s to lose. He is the only ranked candidate with
higher positives than negatives. Roughly half of voters say they wouldn’t
even consider voting for Adams, and only 56% of Republicans currently
support Sliwa, which mirrors his drop to 15% from his 28% total in the 2021
race.
Mamdani is the only candidate running a positive race, and positivity
generally connects with voters much more powerfully than negativity. The
rest of the field is running on a negative, anti-Mamdani platform. And while
negative campaigning can be effective when done right, it often doesn’t
result in votes for the attacker.
The crazy thing is the socialist candidate who is now using Trump as his
main foil, is running a Make NYC Great Again campaign. And while there is
plenty to doubt about his ability – that’s his biggest vulnerability with voters
– or his honesty on many issues where has tried to reverse previous very
controversial positions, Mamdani’s positivity has completely shielded him
from the negative attacks of his opponents.
Another big factor is there is just a worn out vibe from many voters, who
have been promised so much by NY Democrats in past elections that they
have failed to deliver on, that something new and with a fresh energetic
feeling seems like it’s just worth taking a chance on. The voters don’t seem
to care what the opposition says in this campaign, they are willing to take a
chance.
And that chance, which upon closer look appears to be just more of the
same old failed agenda but with new packaging, just may blow up in the
voters’ face. Mayor of NYC is considered the second hardest job in
America, and giving that job a 33-year old with no real job experience who
idealizes communism could be a disaster that takes the idea of buyer’s
remorse a new level.
