By Robert Hornak
We are still over two months away from the 2025 mayoral primaries but make no mistake, the race for governor for 2026 has already begun.
The most recent Marist poll confirms what everyone has been thinking for a few months now and with the weakness of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s poll numbers, potential candidates sensing Hochul’s vulnerability are quietly starting to line up to run.
Hochul is what they call underwater in her approval rating, meaning that her approval rating at a low 39% is below her disapproval rating at 46%. Traditionally anything under 50% approval is considered a potential problem, but with the very divisive political climate we’ve had for over a decade now it’s becoming increasingly rare for anyone in office to have aver 50% approval.
Hochul’s numbers, however, are especially weak. Her own Lt. Governor, Antonio Delgado, has declined to run with her in 2026 in a move seen as a possible first step to running against her. And, like we are currently seeing in this year’s primary for mayor, when ambitious elected officials see what could be a contested primary, more candidates are tempted to jump in looking to build their popularity statewide.
On the Democrat side, congressman and rising pro-Israel anti-socialist star Ritchie Torres is considered a very formidable challenger. And, of course, everyone knows Andrew Cuomo wants to be back in the statehouse but even should he win the race for mayor this year, it would be very difficult for him to jump right into the race for governor with the primary coming less than six months after he would be sworn in for what many think is the second hardest job in America.
The list of other possible challengers could get very long, including others who have run unsuccessfully for governor, including Leticia James, Tom Suozzi, and Jumaane Williams. James and Suozzi would have to forfeit their current seats as Attorney General and Congressman, respectively, to run instead for governor. Williams would have nothing to lose as he will likely be reelected as Public Advocate this year and won’t need to give up his seat to run.
And, of course, the new matching funds program makes this race even more attractive for anyone who can qualify for the very generous public funds match but can’t necessarily raise from the monied interests in NY that have a very powerful voice in state elections.
The most talked about names on the Republican side so far are Mike Lawler and Bruce Blakeman. Like Suozzi, Lawler would have to forgo running again for his very competitive swing congressional seat in the Hudson Valley at a time when keeping control of congress will be critical for Republicans. And like Williams, Blakeman’s position for Nassau County Executive isn’t up for election in 2026, allowing him to potentially run without forfeiting his current seat. However, there is still a lot of time for the Republican field to become equally as crowded as the democratic primary.
All of this is very bad news for Hochul, who is fighting many battles that seem likely to increase her negatives. The state budget is already two weeks late and the word is that it may not pass until late May. And she may not get many of the concessions on things like bail reform, criminal discovery, or funding for programs that many people are expecting her to deliver on.
Then there is the incredible disapproval, with 58% opposing, for the congestion tax that has literally driven people away from Manhattan. The impact on businesses in the congestion zone is building quickly and not in a good way. Restaurants are suffering and so are parking garages, whose owners often contribute large amounts of campaign cash. People in the outlying communities are already screaming over the increase in traffic in their neighborhoods and the fighting for street parking during the day.
The other numbers are also bad for Hochul, with 82% saying the cost of living in NY is unaffordable, 64% believing the economy is deteriorating, and 55% thinking the quality of life has gotten worse.
So, if you think this year’s race for mayor could be a wild one, buckle up for next year’s race for governor, as the fireworks could be unlike anything we’ve seen before.
Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.
