By Robert Hornak
The seemingly never-ending presidential election is almost over. With less than three weeks to go the polls are showing a very tight race and the political trash-talking is flying. And, of course, nobody trash talks in politics like Donald J. Trump. In politics he’s the Larry Bird of trash talking.
So, naturally, what does Trump do to get more under the skin of Kamala Harris and the Democrats? He declares that he’s going to win NY and plans a huge rally at Madison Square Garden in the campaign’s final days to show just how serious he is.
But can Trump really win NY and its 28 electoral votes?
The last time a Republican won NY was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide victory against Walter Mondale, where Reagan won every state but Minnesota and received 53.8% of the vote in NY. The closest a Republican has come since then was George H.W. Bush, with 47.5% the year he beat Michael Dukakis. The only other Republican to crack 40% was his George W. Bush in 2005 with 40.1% against John Kerry.
So how realistic is it that Trump can put NY in play? Well, if you look at the results from the election for NY Governor in 2022 some would say very realistic. With the rise of the Democratic Socialists in NY and their electing Alexandrea Ocasio Cortez to congress in 2018, the same year the democrats won control of the State Senate after years of trying, NY has undergone a major lurch to the far left.
The Democrats almost immediate reforms to cash bail and discovery rules have made many people very unhappy. Not to mention afraid to walk the streets and ride the subways as crime and a general sense of lawlessness increased rapidly. Some might say that protecting criminals was their top priority.
This in addition to the draconian covid lockdowns resulted in the closest a republican has come winning a statewide election since George Pataki was governor, with the Republican candidate receiving 46.7% of the vote in 2022. Ans since then things have not gotten any better. Crime is still a major issue, even more so now with the massive wave of illegal migrants flowing into NY, magnifying the sense of lawlessness many have experienced.
This is part of what Trump believes he can tap into. If not for himself then for the Republicans in swing congressional districts on Long Island and upstate, where the vote has been trending republican over the last few years. Ultimately, whoever wins the presidency will likely have coattails that swing close House races all over the country. Having a congress that he can work well with this time, should he prevail in wining back the presidency, will make life a lot easier for him in moving his agenda forward.
Trump winning NY would be beyond devastating to Harris and would likely end with a 1984 style blowout. Some say that can’t happen because of how closely divided the electorate is. But in 1984 Reagan won that landslide with only 53.8% of the popular vote.
So, the answer to the question is, it’s unlikely Trump wins NY. But the idea that it’s even remotely possible is very exciting, should still make NY democrats very nervous, and probably signals how this election will end.
Robert 
Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.
