We are barely halfway through January and the first poll in the race for governor of New York has dropped. Zogby Strategies, a well- known national polling firm conducted an online poll of 844 likely NY voters. What is shows will come as little surprise to most, that head to head Gov. Hochul is up 53% to 39% over the expected Republican nominee, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
It is, of course, ridiculously early in the process. The state conventions will be held in early February, where the constituted party organizations will decide who will automatically be on the primary ballot. Hochul is likely to be the only Democrat to be voted onto the ballot at the convention, and with Rep. Elise Stefanik out of the race the same goes for Blakeman, who should have the Conservative Party line locked up as well.
For Hochul, it remains to be seen what will happen with the Working Families Line. They endorsed Jumaane Williams in 2022, but he withdrew after Hochul won the Democratic Primary that June. Doing otherwise could have jeopardized their ballot status going forward. But the relationship between the left wing WFP and the more moderate Hochul has been very transactional. Hochul just signed legislation benefitting the Party and their ability to control who gets their line. That and her willingness to work with socialist NYC mayor Mamdani should win her their good will in the short term.
Then comes the petition process, where anyone can petition to get on the ballot either against one of the party organizations pick in a primary, or as an independent candidate in the November General Election. And that’s where this could get more interesting.
Should Hochul get another Democrat in the primary, it would most likely be seen as an annoyance for her. She is popular with her party base and has balanced herself fairly well between the socialists and the moderates in the Party. A primary for Blakeman would be a different situation. Blakeman is still not well known outside of Long Island and while a primary could fast-track his introduction, it could also change how he introduces himself to the voters he needs to be competitive come November.
Then there are the third party candidates. They often don’t have a big impact in elections, but in this election that could be different. Perennial candidate Larry Sharpe, who was the Libertarian Party candidate for Governor twice before, is running again. Sharpe has built a following, can raise money, and the new matching funds program could be a huge boost for him. The Zogby poll numbers change dramatically with Sharpe factored in, with Hochul dropping to 49%, Blakeman to 34%, and Sharpe taking 8% of likely voters.
Again, it’s extremely early in the process, and any decent political consultant will tell you that this is why we have campaigns. The next nine months are when the candidates need to make their case to the voters. Some candidates do that very well and the outcome of the race is different than originally expected. And sometimes they do that poorly and get number below what anyone thought possible. The 2025 race for mayor is the perfect example of how that dynamic can change over the course of the year.
Right now Sharpe is taking votes almost equally from both candidates, but again, that can change. If either major party candidate shows any vulnerability or weakness, that will surely be exploited just as Mamdani was able to successfully do so against Cuomo, twice.
This is where politics most resembles professional sports. Sometimes things go exactly as expected, and sometimes we get a huge surprise. But you never really know which until the game is over. Teams wining big at halftime sometimes still lose, and sometimes the leader never looks vulnerable and coasts to victory. It’s the uncertainty that makes it all very interesting and makes the political game fun to play. And fun to write about.
