Yes, You Can Believe the polls… mostly

When you talk about election the electoral college, he did lose the into the fall. The one change coming build the same universe of voters, polls you hear many different responses. What many Republicans have been saying lately when it comes to the polls for the NYC mayors’ race is that they don’t believe the polls. And that’s a shame.

Polling is not intended to definitively predict the winner of an election, especially months before an election. What polls offer is a snapshot of what the electorate is thinking at that moment in time and insight into what each candidate needs to do to increase their voter appeal.

Candidates can look at these polls and find their strengths and weaknesses, then go about emphasizing their strengths while minimizing or adjusting for their weaknesses. That’s what campaigns are all about.

When this is explained, many people will push back, saying, well what about Trump? Well, if you look at the Trump polls, they were very interesting. In 2016, Trump was trailing Clinton the entire race. But as the election took shape, a phrase was coined in response to what the polls were showing. Voters related to Trump but were not saying they would vote for him. These were increasingly referred to as the hidden Trump voter.

And in the end, while Trump won popular vote as the polls predicted. The 2020 election is now the third rail of politics, but the polls showed Trump down and he ended up losing. And in 2024, Harris was up at the very beginning, but as she stumbled while responding to serious questions, the polls narrowed and Trump took the lead in many national polls and almost every swing state poll.

But for mayoral polling you can look no further than the 2021 election. The first polls that came out after Eric Adams won the primary showed Sliwa with under 30% of voter support. That was where he stayed the entire race, and that was where he finished on election day.

In the Democratic Primary this year, Cuomo was up early and expected to easily win. But that wasn’t where the polls stayed. As each month passed, Mamdani closed the gap, leading to many people questioning Cuomo’s strategy and commitment. As the election drew near the polls were showing a tight race, with two polls actually showing Mamdani pulling ahead.

Now, the polls have all consistently shown Mamdani leading in the 40’s. with Cuomo until recently in the 20’s, and Sliwa in the low teens. That has not changed significantly all through the summer and in the Quinnipiac poll after Adams dropped out, and it showed all his support going to Cuomo, propelling him up to 33% and just over ten points behind Mamdani.

This has clearly become a two- person race, but not between the two people that Sliwa supporters claim it’s between.

Sliwa’s campaign strategy has not changed since June, and neither have his poll numbers. In fact, he’s essentially running the same campaign he did in 2021 that got him 28% of the vote. Disappointed Republicans have gone to Cuomo in large numbers (many by way of Adams), leaving him with approximately half the support he had last time.

The polls have accurately laid out each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses by issue. Mamdani was very strong on a number of issues, like affordability. Cuomo was very strong on a number, like experience. Sliwa has not shown strong on a single issue, even on his signature issue public safety, where voter confidence for him is still weak.

Yes, the polls can be off. It requires an ability to accurately predict who will turn out to vote and asking the right questions from a scientifically random sample of voters. Campaign strategists are required to and often do it well.

The idea that they will be off, and consistently, by 30 points or more is silly to believe. This campaign has always been a race to 40% and Mamdani is in the catbird seat. Cuomo needs to win over Mamdani supporters to have a chance to beat him and be the one who finishes over 40%.