Robert Hornak
Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail. com and @roberthornak on X.
The passing of Labor Day marks the unofficial end of sum-mer and the beginning, so we are told, of when voters really start to pay attention to the upcoming election. NYC mayoral races are always interesting, but this year’s has people’s attention like no other, and not just in NYC but across the state and the country.
Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year old Queens Assemblyman with a socialist agenda has held a solid lead in all the polls since he won the Democratic Primary in June. Instead of the usual one-on-one race with a sacrificial Republican running as the loyal opposition, this time we have a wild multi-candidate race that includes former Governor Andrew Cuomo and the embattled current Mayor Eric Adams.
Both are running as independent candidates after Cuomo lost the primary and Adams, realizing his unpopularity with his own party, skipped the primary completely. Winning an uncontested primary was Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and Independent candidates Jim Walden and Joseph Hernandez joined the race as well.
Polling in the race has been very steady all summer. Mamdani holds a solid lead in the high-30’s to mid-40’s. Cuomo has held a constant second place in the mid- 20’s, followed by Sliwa in a distant third in the low to mid-teens, and Adams limping along in fourth in the high single digits. Walden and Hernandez have yet to make an impact.
While all the leading candidates are seen as deeply flawed and unable to attract a majority of voters in this election, Mamdani and his radical agenda have turned the heads of many NYC voters, even within the Democratic Party. He is now essentially the leader of the Democratic Socialist movement that critiques capitalism and strongly opposes Israel.
Issues that the DSA has championed, and Mamdani either supports or refuses to disavow, include legalizing drugs and prostitution, ending Mayoral control of the school system, removing cops from schools, and pushing for universal rent control. This is in addition to his promises of free buses, free childcare, and a rent freeze on current regulated apartments.
Mamdani’s strong opposition to Israel, support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) Movement, and pledge to arrest Israeli PM Netanyahu as a war criminal has some Jews concerned.
The calls for candidates to drop out and to circle around one opponent have been flying all summer. However, polls show that this would not be enough to beat Mamdani. When asked about their willingness to vote for each candidate, all three of the other higher-polling candidates have large numbers of voters who refuse to vote for each one. Not one can beat Mamdani in any head to head scenario, with Cuomo coming the closest, and both Adams and Sliwa not coming close.
Each of the other three has their own baggage they can’t seem to overcome, and none of them appears able to instill confidence in the voters that they are up to the job. Mamdani, with his pleasant demeanor, lighthearted attitude, and promises to make people’s lives happier and more affordable – regardless of his ability to actually deliver on any of his agenda – seems to have the trust of more voters than any of the others to run the city.
This is the power of positivity in a campaign. While all the other candidates are telling the voters how Mamdani won’t be good for them, Mamdani is telling the voters how he will be good for them, and they are believing him over the negative attacks.
But the simple fact remains, that if and until the voters start to doubt Mamdani’s ability and intentions, he will remain in the lead. His rainbows and puppy dogs approach to this election has hands down beaten the dour, doom and gloom campaigning of the other candidates.
