By Robert Hornak
New York has become a real pressure cooker for Democrats, with a voter base – fully gripped by Trump Derangement Syndrome – that wants their party to just throw down and battle Trump at every step, but at the same time wants moderate, responsible leaders who can get things done and have a vision for the future.
They will learn the hard way, however, they can’t have both.
Chuck Schumer tried to be the responsible adult in the room during the budget extension negotiation. Rather than shut the government down and put his party in a position to be savaged he opted instead to pass a continuing resolution and live to fight another day.
There was little to gain by opposing the bill, and this was essentially the same clean CR that the Democrats were demanding that Republicans support just last year. But that doesn’t matter to a party that only wants to fight with their friends across the aisle. The calls for Schumer to resign are now building. His own party wants his blood for the now unforgivable sin of working across the political divide.
There is now rampant speculation that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez will run for his senate seat in 2028 and challenge Schumer in a primary should he run for reelection. Democrats overwhelmingly love the seething anti-Trumpism that people like AOC, Bernie Sanders, and other radical leftists are spewing. For them it’s like hearing Bon Jovi sing “Livin’ on a Prayer” in concert.
But Democrats don’t want the rest of the agenda being pushed by the AOCs of their party. Recent polls of primary voting Democrats in NYC show that while they want strong opposition to Trump, they also want real solutions to the problems the city is confronting, including getting rid of criminal illegal aliens, putting other criminals in jail, and getting the homeless off city streets and into treatment.
This is why Andrew Cuomo is way, way ahead in the polls for mayor. In the most recent poll, Cuomo has grown his voter support to 41% before ranked choice voting kicks in, and in a RCV simulation he gets over 50% very quickly.
Second place still goes to socialist Zohran Mamdami at 18%, up from 12% in the last poll. Mamdami is certainly getting his name recognition up with all the press he’s received from his second place showing in the polls to his strong ability to raise tons of cash.
But he has his limit, only people who want a socialist for mayor will rank him at all. As Cuomo goes above 51% in the simulation, Mandami is only at 23%. And his being a pro-Palestinian anti-Semite isn’t making him any more palatable to voters who are in large numbers Jewish and pro-Israel.
This is a conundrum that Kathy Hochul has navigated rather well. While her approval numbers are also down, she has avoided Schumer-like calls for her head, managing to show push back against Trump while still finding a defensible way to work with him. But the rubber will meet the road for her over the congestion tax scheme that Trump is demanding she dump, while Hochul wants to dig in and support this incredibly unpopular working-class cash grab.
Hochul is still likely to have a vigorous primary for her reelection in 2026, but she has a strong advantage there as the incumbent. Especially if the field loads up with anti-Hochul candidates, dividing that vote. But she faced a too-close-for-comfort reelection in 2022 against a lackluster Republican and is likely to face a stronger opponent next time.
How she balances the anti-Trumpism that her base wants along with the responsible leadership mainstream voters want will have a strong effect on her ability to win another term. Trump did better in NY each election, increasing his vote by 200,000 in 2020, and by another 400,000 in 2024. So most voters are warming to him, even as the Democratic base is consumed with Trump-hatred.
If Democrats can’t reconcile their blinding desire to fight Trump and their need to work with him, it’s very possible the party could boil over and split into two very distinct factions that open a path for Republicans to start winning citywide and statewide elections again.
Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.
