By Robert Hornak

With petitioning starting in a few weeks for anyone running for city office this year, a poll was released this week by a democratic consulting firm that wanted to get some solid insight into which of the Democrats running for mayor were connecting with the voters and what issues were motivating primary voting Democrats. A number of surprises were revealed.

First, the candidate way ahead is the one who isn’t even running yet. Not long ago it appeared that former governor Andrew Cuomo was a pariah in NY politics. Now it appears that NYC democrats see him as the savior of their party. Ten candidates were included in the poll asking if the election were held today who would you vote for, and Cuomo received a commanding 35% of the vote.

Brad Lander comes in second with 10%, then at 9% is Eric Adams and Zohran Mamdani, followed by Scott Stringer at 8%. Then at 6% is Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie at 3%. 20% of the respondents were undecided and the other three candidates, Michael Blake, Jim Walden and Whitney Tilson barely registered, with 1% or less. 

This, of course, is incredibly bad news for Eric Adams who is being resoundingly rejected by his party’s voters. Adams has the highest unfavorability rating at 83% (worse than Trump), and 81% disapprove of the job that Adams is doing as Mayor. On how city government is being run today, 66% give a rating of poor with only 28% rating it as fair. A shocking 85% say they don’t believe that Adams should be reelected as Mayor.

Earlier polls also showed Cuomo doing very well, leading many to assume that his strong numbers were based on name recognition, with many newcomers in the primary field. But there are some long-active, seasoned Democrats in this field, like Stringer and Lander, who have held higher office and have been relatively popular with Democrats. 

When you look at the issues that these primary voters care most about, it’s not the issues that the radical leftists or Democratic Socialists are focused on. Quite the opposite, in fact, and that explains a great deal of the results for these candidates. 

When asked what the most important issues are that the next mayor will have to deal with, crime and violence was the top issue at 23%, followed by quality of life at 22% and housing affordability at 19%. And, yes, this is a poll of primary voting democrats, not republicans. 

Other issues that were polled included: clean up government corruption; end the migrant crisis; fix the MTA, improve schools and education; create jobs and grow the economy; and stand up for people like me.

When asked who they think would be the best person to address each of the issues, Cuomo wins by a large margin on every issue, ranging from 24% to 45%. By comparison, Adams ranges from 1% to 12%, Stringer from 3% to 24%, and Democratic Socialist favorite Mamdani from 5% to 11%.

Top issues for Democratic Socialists and radical leftists, like closing prisons and reducing sentences for criminals, getting rid of anything that runs on fossil fuels (cars, ovens, heat, etc), or using leftist approved gender pronouns and pushing gender fluidity ideology on children, are nowhere to be found in the conversation. 

Interestingly, attitudes toward the Middle East conflict were not included, but it’s fair to say that many – but not all – of the candidates with decent numbers are pro-Israel.

This strong showing for Cuomo and the issues that he is seen as being strong on indicate that even in very liberal NYC, Democrats are rejecting the agenda of the far left and the DSA. Cuomo is said to be very close to announcing a run for mayor, and it appears he has the potential of walking away with a Primary win in June. And that just might be the thing that ultimately swings the Democratic Party back to focusing on the issues the voters care most about. 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.

By Robert Hornak

Primary elections often have a certain amount of animosity with people from the same party trying to advance often similar but competing governing visions. Who wins these elections can often determine a lot about the direction that party takes in the near future – and sometimes in the long term as well.

Republicans are no stranger to this. In the 1980’s and 90’s there was the Reagan Revolution that challenged the long-standing zeitgeist of the establishment party leadership, that what was good for big business was good for America. Reagan’s domestic agenda focus on the working man, small business, and constitutional rights started a conflict that morphed through a few different incarnations. In the 90’s it was the Gingrich “Contract with America” and takeover of the House, then it became the Tea Party in the 2000’s, and then MAGA. 

It took almost 50 years, but eventually the disruptors won. 

The Democrats are in the early stages of a very similar internal conflict, but while the Republican disruptors were passionate pro-America, the Democrat disruptors are as opposite and anti-America as could be. 

It started in 2018 when Alexandria Ocasio Cortez defeated longtime Rep. Joe Crowly, a conservative, pro-life (yes, there used to be a few) democrat from Queens. AOC, as she is known, had the support of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) that was about to explode onto the political scene with a very radical, far left, anti-America, anti-Israel socialist agenda. 

A few short years later the 2021 NYC mayoral primary had a number of candidates from the far left looking to succeed term-limited Bill de Blasio, but the DSA didn’t yet have their own candidate for mayor. Fast forward to today, and the DSA has grown frighteningly powerful within the Democratic Party. 

All grown up, the DSA now has its own candidate for mayor, and he’s seen as a serious contender. Zohran Mamdani, who the DSA successfully elected to the NYS Assembly a few years ago, has captured the support of the most radical democrats in NYC in his race to replace Eric Adams as mayor. In the recent fundraising period that ended on January 11, Mandani had the highest take of any candidate in that filing, raising a shocking $641,816 since starting his campaign only a few months ago.

His take in this period was better than any of the far more experienced and well-known Democrats in the race like Brad Lander or the more moderate Scott Stringer. 

But here’s the rub – Momdani isn’t just a radical socialist who opposes the NYPD and putting criminals in jail, supports the socialist agenda that includes massive government regulation of business, control of private property, and the radically destructive green agenda. But in this city with one of the largest Jewish populations in the world, he is a pro-Palestinian antisemite. 

And this is the conflict that Democrats must deal with now. Their loss in 2024 should have been instructive. Even in places where Harris beat Trump, the numbers were much closer than in 2020. Many NY Democrats and independents who voted for Biden either flipped to vote for Trump or just stayed home. 

Voters are rejecting the pro-criminal, pro-illegal immigrant, anti-Israel agenda of the far left. Socialist District Attorney’s that were first elected with the support of George Soros and his “hate America” allies have now been thrown out all around the country in Democrat primaries. 

But Mamdani is a socialist disruptor that could permanently change the Democratic Party and make it the radical, anti-cop, pro-criminal, antisemitic party that the voters are rejecting in most cities and blue states. 

Of course, a Mamdani win in the primary could throw the door wide open for Curtis Sliwa, who is the only serious Republican candidate right now planning to run for mayor. It could drive many Democrats into the wide-open arms of the Republican Party looking for a party that embraces some sense of normalcy, and unlike in 1993 when they ran to Rudy Giuliani for saving, this time they just may stay with their Republican brethren. 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @RobertHornak on X.