By Robert Hornak
The results of last Tuesday’s election came with many surprises. And it has Democrats across the country reeling, pointing fingers, and trying to figure out where they went wrong with Kamala Harris. But nowhere were Democrats more stunned than right here in New York.
Governor Hochul had a too close for comfort win in 2022, but no doubt NY Democrats were figuring 2024 to be a less worrisome year. The last time a Republican won New York was Reagan in 1984 and their last strong showing was Bush in the post-9/11 election 20 years ago. But in the last few NY polls, Harris was only up by between 15 and 19 points.
This is well below where Democrats for president typically poll in NY, and enough for Republicans to start chatter that NY was in play. Everyone knew this was just trash talking the opposition, but when Republicans have a chance to do that in NY, they take the opportunity.
And, while Harris won NY by a relatively comfortable margin, the numbers were still way off where NY Democrats thought they would be. Trump received 200,000 more votes statewide than in 2020, while Harris lost 900,000 votes that Biden received. Trump’s share of the vote went up from 37.7% to 44.2% this year, narrowing the margin to just 11.6 points for the state. An earthshattering improvement.
In NYC, the numbers were just as alarming. Trump picked up approximately 95,000 votes across the city over 2020, while Harris lost 600,000, two-thirds of her total statewide loss.
So, is this just an anomaly, or are doors opening for NY Republicans?
Over the last decade the Democrat agenda has increasingly been dictated by the far-left radicals in the party. In NY they have pushed a trifecta of unpopular agendas. First has been anti-police pro-criminal reforms that have made the city more dangerous and unpredictable than before Giuliani saved NYC in the 1990’s.
Then, reforms that have undermined the quality of education, from watering down specialized high schools for high achievers to pushing racial and gender based political agendas on our youth. Finally, they are aggressively pushing plans like congestion pricing and radical housing upzoning schemes for the low-density more family-friendly suburban-like sections of the city that together make life for outer-borough residents much less desirable.
All of this has strongly influenced outer-borough voters who value the lifestyle their communities offer them. This is especially true for immigrant communities who escaped poor and often oppressive living conditions and came here for the opportunities that America has always offered. This includes the very large and growing communities of Asian, Southeast Asian, and Latino immigrants that have made NYC their home.
And, of course, there has been the invasion of illegal migrants that is impacting communities across the city. The move toward the Republican Party is underway for these voters as they flee the destructive agenda the Democrats are pushing on them. And it should make Democrats much more introspective than they have proven to be over the failure of their policies.
Trump won five of the six city council districts held by Republicans, and only narrowly lost the sixth Bronx district. Additionally, he won four other districts currently held by Democrats, broke 40% in four other Democrat held districts, and received between 35-40% in four others. In all, that’s 12 city council districts that Republicans could make a serious play for in 2025. Winning even half of those races would be a political earthquake.
All this, with the overlay of a mayoral race where everybody will be looking to replace Eric Adams, who is facing numerous federal corruption charges, could make NYC politics very interesting in 2025. But it ultimately comes down to the candidates willing to run and dedicated themselves to flipping those seats. And that is never as predictable as the numbers might indicate.
Robert 
Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.
