by Robert Hornak
The 2024 election is almost over. I’m sure many people would say
mercifully so. While a victory by former President Trump is looking
increasingly likely the talk has begun to turn toward who will control
Congress.
Republican control of the Senate looks like a near certainty. Of the 11 seats
up for election held by Republicans, including two open seats, only one
Republican is in danger of losing – Deb Fischer of Nebraska. She’s only up
by one point in the polls, but Trump is ahead in Nebraska by 16 points. It’s
very likely his strong performance will pull her across the finish line.
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to defend 23 seats, including 7 open
seats. Of those, West Virginia’s open seat is considered an easy win for
Republicans, putting the Senate at 50-50. In Montana, another state Trump
will do well in, Democrat Jon Tester is down in the polls.
The respected Cook Political Report has rated the races in Michigan,
Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania as toss ups. And the seats in Arizona
and Nevada are only very narrow leads for the Democrats. If Republicans
run the table and see upset wins in the surprisingly close race in Maryland
and flip Virginia, they would be at 59 seats.
So, what are the chances that Republican can win the trifecta on Tuesday?
Pretty good, no matter what happens in New York.
Cook rates 25 House races as toss ups, 11 Democrats and 14
Republicans. These swing districts will have less to do with which
presidential candidate wins their state than with the local dynamics.
Excitement over the candidate at the top of the ballot can influence the
results down ballot, depending on the strength of their coattails.
Strong candidates for president have big coattails, sweeping many
candidates from their party into office. One rare exception was 2020, where
Democrats actually lost 11 House seats, setting up the 2022 election where
Republicans were able to take back control of the House by gaining 9 seats
that November.
In addition to the toss up races, Cook rates 11 blue seats as leaning
Democrat, or somewhat competitive. Meanwhile, there are only 6
Republican seats that are leaning Republican, with one incumbent’s race
rated as leaning Democrat. They also rate 16 Democrat seats and 10
Republican seats as likely wins for their respective party. Every other race
they rate as solid, or not even remotely competitive.
In all that’s 38 Democrat seats and 31 Republican seats that could be in
play. This is where the action is going to be on election night, and we are
likely to see a number of surprises. There are always incumbents that you
thought were a goner, but manage to hang on, and a couple that you were
sure to be re-elected that end up defeated.
Some of this will depend on the strength of presidential coattails in these
districts, with turnout certain to be affected by the enthusiasm each
candidate has generated. And on the enthusiasm meter, Trump seems to
have the advantage.
But ultimately it will depend on the strength of the individual candidates and
the races they run. So regardless of whether Republicans hold their seats
in New York or wind up losing two or three, the chances that Republicans
overall will pick up a number of seats around the country are very good and
we are likely to see a significantly larger Republican conference in the
House next year.
Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously
served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC
office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can
be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.
