By Robert Hornak

It’s almost two weeks since Mayor Eric Adams was indicted, and NYC’s future couldn’t be murkier. Right on cue, the calls for Adams to resign was immediate. No due process required.  AOC and her gang of far-left radicals, who never found Adams sufficiently far left enough, lead the charge along with people like Brad Lander and Scott Stringer who covet the office Adams now holds. Ulterior motives abound. 

 

Some are defending Adams and his right to due process, led by Adams allies Hazel Dukes from the NAACP and Al Sharpton, no stranger to corruption charges himself. Now Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the top House Democrat, has come out on Adams behalf. 

 

Meanwhile, Adams has been defiant, proclaiming his innocence. So, if Adams refuses to resign, what happens next?

 

There are many possibilities. First, Gov. Hochul has the power to remove him according to chapter 1, section 9 of the City Charter, and as affirmed in 1932 by the court when FDR explored using it to remove Jimmy Walker. However, it’s unclear if Hochul wants to risk the backlash from Black Democrats. 

 

It’s also unlikely that the Democrats want to trigger a very unpredictable special election to replace Adams. The same goes for the Inability Committee provided for by the charter, consisting of five people, only one of whom would be appointed by someone who has called for Adams to resign. And it’s unlikely that Brad Lander would want next in line Jumaane Williams – who wasn’t even considering running for mayor next year – to become acting Mayor, giving him the chance to act mayoral for the non-partisan special election.  

 

A special election also opens the door for many wildcard candidates, including Andrew Cuomo, who has expressed interest in running in a special election knowing that his chances are far worse in the June partisan primary. Some members of the City Council may also get in on the action, wanting a platform for their issues or just to enhance their name ID, but can then still run for re-election to their council seat. 

 

However, should Adams hold on into the new year the opportunity for a special election runs out. The charter prohibits a special election once it gets within 90 days of the regularly scheduled primary, which would occur in late March – right in the middle of petitioning for anyone looking to run for the full four-year term. That makes petitioning for a seat like Public Advocate very messy, inviting people to jump into that race as well.

 

Democrats who need to make decisions on what office to run for next year will want a potential special election to be held by early February, which will require Adams removal no later than early December. Who wins that special will determine what November race they petition for later that month. 

 

There is no easy or clear path forward. Adams lawyers could negotiate a plea bargain sometime next year that would require him to plead guilty and resign, and we get an acting mayor, either Williams or Lander, until the end of the year. The only thing certain is that the timing of this has made a bad situation worse, nothing that anyone could have wanted.

 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.

 

 

 

By Robert Hornak

The seemingly never-ending presidential election is almost over. With less than three weeks to go the polls are showing a very tight race and the political trash-talking is flying. And, of course, nobody trash talks in politics like Donald J. Trump. In politics he’s the Larry Bird of trash talking. 

So, naturally, what does Trump do to get more under the skin of Kamala Harris and the Democrats? He declares that he’s going to win NY and plans a huge rally at Madison Square Garden in the campaign’s final days to show just how serious he is. 

But can Trump really win NY and its 28 electoral votes? 

The last time a Republican won NY was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide victory against Walter Mondale, where Reagan won every state but Minnesota and received 53.8% of the vote in NY. The closest a Republican has come since then was George H.W. Bush, with 47.5% the year he beat Michael Dukakis. The only other Republican to crack 40% was his George W. Bush in 2005 with 40.1% against John Kerry. 

So how realistic is it that Trump can put NY in play? Well, if you look at the results from the election for NY Governor in 2022 some would say very realistic. With the rise of the Democratic Socialists in NY and their electing Alexandrea Ocasio Cortez to congress in 2018, the same year the democrats won control of the State Senate after years of trying, NY has undergone a major lurch to the far left. 

The Democrats almost immediate reforms to cash bail and discovery rules have made many people very unhappy. Not to mention afraid to walk the streets and ride the subways as crime and a general sense of lawlessness increased rapidly. Some might say that protecting criminals was their top priority. 

This in addition to the draconian covid lockdowns resulted in the closest a republican has come winning a statewide election since George Pataki was governor, with the Republican candidate receiving 46.7% of the vote in 2022. Ans since then things have not gotten any better. Crime is still a major issue, even more so now with the massive wave of illegal migrants flowing into NY, magnifying the sense of lawlessness many have experienced. 

This is part of what Trump believes he can tap into. If not for himself then for the Republicans in swing congressional districts on Long Island and upstate, where the vote has been trending republican over the last few years. Ultimately, whoever wins the presidency will likely have coattails that swing close House races all over the country. Having a congress that he can work well with this time, should he prevail in wining back the presidency, will make life a lot easier for him in moving his agenda forward. 

Trump winning NY would be beyond devastating to Harris and would likely end with a 1984 style blowout. Some say that can’t happen because of how closely divided the electorate is. But in 1984 Reagan won that landslide with only 53.8% of the popular vote. 

So, the answer to the question is, it’s unlikely Trump wins NY. But the idea that it’s even remotely possible is very exciting, should still make NY democrats very nervous, and probably signals how this election will end.

 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.

 

 

 

By Robert Hornak

Heading into the 2024 election, Democrats had what they thought was a great way to defeat Donald Trump, even after it appeared he was immune to their political attacks. They planned to go after him with civil and criminal cases in friendly jurisdictions to tie him up fighting legal proceedings instead of fighting political battles.

   The only problem was it didn’t work.

   Not only did Trump manage to keep most of the prosecutors chasing their tails all year, ever the showman he managed to turn every day in court into a political opportunity to dominate the news cycle with everyone talking about him all day, every day. He even pulled off a what most of see as a successful  rally in the Bronx, once again flipping the political bird at his haters.

   The one pyric victory they got, their holy grail for the election, was to win one criminal conviction to call Trump a felon. And they did, by contorting a case based on bookkeeping records for legal payments to his then attorney, that they dressed up as “hush money” payments to an adult actress and morphed from misdemeanors into felonies.

   They had an uber-partisan DA push the case through a kangaroo court in one of the most liberal venues in the country. And presto! A conviction. But even that didn’t work, as many legal scholars decried the partisan verdict and predicted it would easily be overturned on appeal.

   So, when all the lawfare has failed, what do the Democrats do? Try, try again. Now, on cue, they are filing another lawsuit against Trump based on his response to Kamala Harris bringing up the Central Park Five rape case.

   The case from April 19, 1989, was extremely controversial at the time NYC was dealing with out-of-control crime and a skyrocketing murder rate. The details of the case are well documented. Some of the teens confessed on video, then later recanted their confessions. They were all convicted on numerous charges, one on attempted murder due to the severity of the beating. Then in 2001 Matias Reyes, who was already serving 33 years to life for rape and murder, confessed to raping the jogger and acting alone.  His DNA was a match and the convictions of the other five were vacated, despite protests from investigators who were convinced of the five’s participation.

   Donald Trump was involved by running full page ads later that April 1989,  in the four major daily newspapers that called for the return of the death penalty for murderers. The ads didn’t mention the defendants or the jogger case, but connections were made.

    This was what Harris brought up in the debate, claiming that Trump called for the execution of the five. This weak attempt at an “October surprise” by filing another lawfare right before the election won’t have the desired effect – again. And since the likelihood that defamation – the damaging of someone’s good reputation – is unlikely to be proven, this is yet another exercise in futility generating headlines that will likely work for Trump instead of against him.

 

 

Robert Hornak is a professional political consultant who has previously served as the Deputy Director of the Republican Assembly Leader’s NYC office and as Executive Director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com.