BY ROBERT HORNAK | rahornak@gmail.com
Other than the November midterm elections there probably isn’t anything resonating with more anticipation than whether Alexandria Ocasio Cortez will run for President, U.S. Senate, or for reelection to her congressional seat in 2028.
So, without further anticipation the answer is – Yes.
Well, mostly yes. It seems almost certain AOC will jump into the presidential election, which starts early in 2027. Why not, it’s a wide open field, she can raise millions of dollars as the great socialist hope, continue growing her political influence, and help other far left candidates running for seats all around the country.
AOC can “run for president” all through 2027 without having to give up her chance to run for congress again. There will be a number of debates in 2027, where she will be on the stage with every other hopeful. And, since candidates generally run until they run out of money, she can last well into the process.
The time for her to decide to run for congress won’t come until February 2028, when candidates for legislative races need to get on the ballot. And, since she is unlikely to be her party’s nominee, she will drop out early in 2028.
Her first decision will come early in February when NYS Democrats will hold their convention to choose their preferred candidate for US Senate. That “designated” candidate will automatically be on the ballot for the June primary. This is when she must officially choose – House or Senate.
And everyone in NY will be waiting on pins and needles to see what she chooses. No one more so than Chuck Schumer, who himself will have a decision to make. If AOC decides to challenge him, will he risk the embarrassment of losing, which he very possibly could. He’s not nearly as popular in his home state as he once was.
If Schumer runs, and if he can exert the kind of control over the convention that you’d expect from the most powerful Democrat in the country, then AOC will have to petition her way onto the ballot. For a NY Dem this is not as daunting a challenge as you might think, and will be a cake walk for AOC.
Petitioning will start the last Tuesday in February and run until the first Thursday in April. AOC will circulate petitions then choosing either to keep her House seat, which she can effortlessly hold onto for as long as she desires, or she can take a risk by challenging the top Democrat in the country.
There will still be five presidential primaries, beginning on Jan 22 in South Carolina, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and finally Michigan on Feb 22, all before petitioning begins. AOC can conceivably milk these for all they’re worth. But it’s the 2027 debate stages that hold the most opportunity for her.
Many of her opponents like to denigrate her intelligence. They talk about her experience as a bartender and make that seem like a job for idiots. As someone who bar tended when I was young, I can honestly say it’s not the easiest job and you need to think on your feet. Plus, it’s honest work. And let’s be real, a congress full of arrogant lawyers isn’t what the founders intended and likely couldn’t be anything worse for this country.
AOC has her followers, and they are growing by the year. She represents a certain viewpoint in the country and she represents it well. It’s not likely to last, as it is unlikely the socialists will deliver much on their promises but unhappiness. Nevertheless, politics is as much about showmanship as anything. And AOC is, if nothing else, a good showman (or show person?).
Unlike many of her socialist colleagues, she is young and attractive and projects a warm personality that many people like. Plus, she has mostly avoided the controversies that have dogged other members. Whatever she decides, AOC will be a political force for years to come.
Robert Hornak is a veteran political consultant who previously served as deputy director of the Republican assembly leader’s NYC office and as executive director of the Queens Republican Party. He can be reached at rahornak@gmail.com and @roberthornak on X.
