Handicapping the races that matter…
Sep 09, 2010 | 4815 views | 0 0 comments | 31 31 recommendations | email to a friend | print
Attorney General

1 - Winner - Schneiderman

2 – Rice

3- Coffey

4- Brodsky

5-Dinallo

Schneiderman is starting to pull away with his strong campaign operation, union support, troops on the ground and professional TV ads. He seems to have a progressive stand on issues and is leading the endorsements game. Rice loses despite having many of the political county organizations. She has not caught fire – though the district attorney of Nassau, she is the only woman in the race who can’t seem to get steam behind her. Her TV ads are decent, but she has not inspired the electorate. Sean Coffey has probably come the furthest, a complete unknown before the race, but he has some money and has spent it well. However he has a small campaign troop and will finish third. Richard Brodsky has endorsements from his Assembly colleagues but it means very little – in fact it might even hurt him. Eric Dinallo is the only Italian in the race, and that will be his base vote but not nearly enough to compete.

State Senate

Stavisky wins, but not with a majority. Sasson finishes second after spending a million dollars of his own lottery winnings. Wherever he goes, people love him and he has a good ground campaign, but has not gotten out the message that he needs to get people to come to the booth and vote for him. People have been voting for Stavisky for as long as people have been voting, so we see no change here. Finishing at a distant third is Jim Messer, whose real publicity comes from the speculation that people who worked in his company might have been crooks.

Huntley will win. She has the church ladies, and they vote. Nunes’s message of gay marriage and ”maybe I will be running for Tom White’s seat” does not resonate with people in the district.

State Assembly

Miller should beat out Comaianni but Miller is new to the job and very green, so if anyone is going to take his seat they’ve got a better shot at doing it now rather than later.

Moya beats Monserrate handily in this low voter turnout district. The old guard will go with Hiram but that won’t be nearly enough to overcome all his negative publicity, and Moya is a fresh young face that the younger voters and women will love.

Braunstein beats out former Assemblyman John Duane in a surprisingly close race. Braunstein has all of the endorsements and the money but is unknown. Duane has hit the mailboxes with some decent literature and the old crowd may remember him. Finishing third is Forcina, who will take the Whitestone Italian vote. Steve Behar will finish out of money, still not having learned how to run a campaign.

Congress

In the battle for Congress in the Queens/Manhattan congressional seat where lots of money is being spent one would expect the incumbent to pull it out, but Saujani is an attractive candidate who has run hard and early. Could this be a vote-the-bums-out race?
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